2021 MotoGP – Round 15 – COTA – Preview

For the first and only time this season, and for the first time since 2019, the Michelin Motorsport team and the rest of the MotoGP paddock is heading to the United States of America for the Red Bull Grand Prix of The Americas at the Circuit of The Americas, set in the hills just outside downtown Austin, Texas.

A lot has changed since the last time MotoGP raced at COTA, not least of all the winner in the last two races: Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team), who went from maiden victory to back-to-back hero in a week. Fabio Quartararo (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP) remains the points leader, the Frenchman only just defeated at Misano, and this time as we saddle up in Austin there are only three races left thereafter. But despite the very different landscape and the drama of the last year and a half for eight-time World Champion Marc Marquez (Repsol Honda Team), there surely remains one lone star to be expected in Texas. So can he do it?

One thing we can probably guarantee is that he’ll try. It’s not, however, going to be easy. There has been some solid progress and some good results since those first emotional laps back on a MotoGP machine though, and even earlier in the year when everything was far from going right, Marquez showed he remained the king of going left. His win at the Sachsenring was an emotional one, for him and Honda, and it also unearthed a self-confessed margin. The risk that day was worth the reward, and life for Marquez remains a little easier going anti-clockwise.

Fast forward to Aragon and another anti-clockwise hunting ground of choice, and again the number 93 was straight back at the front. This time, though, it wasn’t on the top step – but it wasn’t through lack of trying. Marquez was the only rider able to stay in Bagnaia’s postcode on Sunday and the two staged a truly spectacular duel, the existence and outcome of which make two different points.

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Marc Marquez

“I am looking forward to Austin and we’re arriving there after two good races, in Aragon and then in Misano. It’s a layout that I like and in the past we have had a lot of success but this year is a little bit different with our situation arriving there. Like always, it’s going to be important to build over the weekend and see where we line up on Sunday morning. No matter what it will be great to return because it’s a round I always enjoy a lot.”

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There’s no reason to expect a serious drop of form for Bagnaia in Texas, and that puts a little more pressure on Quartararo than the Frenchman likely expected a few races ago. Because COTA has also never been Yamaha’s favourite territory either…

The Iwata marque have, however, had some good results, and Quartararo praised some good improvements at the Red Bull Ring, which had also previously been a tougher one for Yamaha. So is it an assault on the win, an exercise in damage limitation, or simply a numbers game? 48-points of advantage at the top allows for each of those options.

Behind the Championship top two and the Marquez narrative though, there’s another for Joan Mir (Team Suzuki Ecstar) too. 67-points off the top, and 75 left on the table after Austin, make it a long shot for the reigning Champion to defend his crown. But that also takes some pressure off, and it was a Suzuki on top at COTA on the single occasion Marquez faltered, then it was Mir’s team-mate Alex Rins, but he has not been enjoying the best form of late.

Texas is also now serious crunch time for the riders just behind Mir in the standings: Johann Zarco (Pramac Racing) and Jack Miller (Ducati Lenovo Team). The former arrives from arm pump surgery so is likely expecting to move back forward, but the latter also praised the two days of testing on the Riviera di Rimini, has two wins in his bag this season and is only one-point further back. Miller was also on the podium last time we saddled up in Texas.

Valentino Rossi, now at Petronas Yamaha SRT, was the lead Yamaha and only half a second off the win last time in Texas, and he’ll want to go out swinging in the States as he races there for the final time. Quartararo will take heart from that too as we return.

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Valentino Rossi

“I really like Austin and the last time we raced there, it was a great weekend for me. I was very strong in both Qualifying and the race, and I finished on the podium. We will see what happens when we get there but it is really nice that we are able to have this overseas event this season and I am really looking forward to being back there, after being unable to be there last year. We will need to get there to understand what our potential can be, but I’m feeling positive and hopefully we can improve some of the things that we need to, so that we can have a good race.”

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Andrea Dovizioso

“There are still a lot of areas that I need to work on, but it was good to have the Misano Test to help increase my time on the bike. I’m not sure what to expect from this weekend, as I will need to see what situation the track is in and I will need to find where the grip is. It is a very demanding track and last time I was there the track had a lot of bumps, however I think they have made some changes since then. The weather will of course have an impact, but it will be the same for everyone. It’s very difficult to predict what will happen but I hope to continue making progress this weekend.”

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Then came Miller, and then came Andrea Dovizioso, who is now taking it on with Yamaha – the same Petronas Yamaha that in 2019 came home behind him in the hands of Franco Morbidelli, now at Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP. With the state of play looking pretty different in 2021 as every one of that group arrives in a different seat, track records don’t tell the future but the shuffle continues to create some interesting stories as some return, some prepare to depart and others fight back.

Speaking of, Jorge Martin (Pramac Racing) will want to do just that at COTA as the rookie race winner now finds himself under a little more pressure in the fight for Rookie of the Year. He’d pulled well clear despite his injury struggles earlier in the season, but a first premier class podium for Enea Bastianini (Avintia Esponsorama) at Misano – with race-winning pace – means it’s now just ten-points the Italian trails the Spaniard, so it’s game on in that rookie showdown too.

After a busy and productive Misano Test, Pol Espargaro is also looking forward to being reunited with his Honda RC213V and seeing what’s possible around the Texan circuit’s 20 corners. Espargaro’s most recent visit to COTA yielded an eighth place finish back in 2019 and the #44 has only once finished outside of the top ten at the track. Like his teammate, Espargaro has been making steady progress since his pole position in Silverstone and is out to make a strong impression in the last four races of 2021.

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Pol Espargaro

“After a good test I am excited to head to Austin, it’s a fun track to ride and it will be great to see some more MotoGP fans outside of Europe. We found a few things during testing in Misano and Austin will be a good place to try them because it’s a circuit with a lot of variety. I’ve had a few top tens there in the past so hopefully we can build on that base this weekend.”

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There will also be plenty to watch out for at KTM and Aprilia, with both factories gearing up with pretty different machines as we return stateside for the first time since early 2019. Then, KTM hadn’t won a race and they’ve now won five. Brad Binder (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) is also sixth in the Championship, only 16 points off Miller, and the South African has continued his Sunday charges to varying degrees in the last few races. Where will KTM shuffle into the pack in Texas?

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Hervé Poncharal – Tech3 KTM Team Manager

“The next round for the Tech3 KTM Factory Racing Team is Texas. A place, I believe the whole paddock likes a lot and a place we haven’t been for quite a while, because I think the last time was spring 2019. This is great to be able to have a race outside of Europe. We know how difficult it is for the promoter to realise that and we are very happy and proud to have a race in USA, which means a lot for all of us. We know how important the US market is for the motorcycle manufacturers and the sponsors, so this is a great news.

“It’s very difficult to predict anything regarding our performance there, because we haven’t been at COTA for quite a while. Our machine, the KTM RC16 has improved such a lot since then. It’s going to be very interesting as it feels like arriving at a brand-new track. I believe our two riders like the layout quite a lot and following the test in Misano, that was quite fruitful, I think we can start on a good foot in Friday morning’s FP1. It will be weird and fun to be in the overseas paddock and we just can’t wait to start the race weekend there!”

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Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia Racing Team Gresini), meanwhile, is the rider on Binder’s heels and the Noale factory will want more than what they got at a slightly muted Misano. Maverick Viñales scored his first few points with the marque last time out though, so that narrative keeps retaining headlines. How will the all-new RS-GP fare at the Red Bull Grand Prix of the Americas?

Bagnaia arrives on the crest of a wave, Quartararo retains his advantage in the points, and Marquez is six for seven in Texas.

Before the track action begins, there are some other events to keep an eye out for too. On Wednesday, Marc Marquez faces down against Jett Lawrence as the eight-time World Champion and 2021 MX 250 AMA Champion test their skills against each other, riding Honda NSF100’s on COTA’s karting track in a high stakes time trial challenge and only one can win.

MotoGP World Championship Standings

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Moto2

Another race weekend, another ace for Red Bull KTM Ajo. But it’s far from boring watching Championship leader Remy Gardner grapple with teammate Raul Fernandez at the top of the table, with the two embroiled in a chess match modern classic of a season. Gardner retains a sizeable 34-point lead over his rookie foil but Fernandez arrives from two wins on the bounce… just, as the veteran Aussie made a late charge at Misano. So can anyone catch them at COTA?

Since the form book has had little respect from the duo thus far, they must remain the favourites. Gardner could have a small edge from experience, too. But as easy as they’ve made it look at times, it’s far from it on track… and a likely suspect for some good speed to rival them could be Sam Lowes (Elf Marc VDS Racing Team). The Brit took his first ever win at the track and has another podium, so there are some good memories.

Lowes though, like Marco Bezzecchi (Sky Racing Team VR46) ahead of him, will need to find some time to break the Red Bull KTM Ajo deadlock at the top. Bezzecchi was the last to do it at the Styrian GP, but then you need to rewind all the way to Jerez for the last time a non-Ajo machine was at the front in parc ferme, which is pretty staggering. So it’s an ask. For Bezzecchi it’s also likely crunch time to stay in contention, with 75 points available after Austin and his deficit to Gardner currently 81. Lowes, meanwhile, is already ruled out from the crown.

There’s a tight fight for fifth overall too, and it could still gain on Lowes for fourth, as Aron Canet (Inde Aspar Team) locks horns with Augusto Fernandez (Elf Marc VDS Racing Team). Canet took a podium last time out as the number 37 had a tougher race, but both have been threats at times. Canet’s shown speed at COTA too, something that bodes well, and he arrives on form.

Fabio Di Giannantonio (Federal Oil Gresini Moto2), meanwhile, isn’t far off that battle and he’s the aforementioned winner at Jerez. He’s also shown some pace in the Lone Star State, and will want to move back up as his move to MotoGP gets closer and closer. Ai Ogura (Idemitsu Honda Team Asia) remains barking at the heels of the veteran too, no mean feat for a rookie, and it’ll be interesting to see what he can do in Texas.

On home turf though, there’s a lot on the line for Joe Roberts (Italtrans Racing Team) and compatriot, and rookie, Cameron Beaubier (American Racing). Roberts’ best so far this season is a fourth – denied a podium by a penalty – and he needs an upturn in form after a tougher run after summer break, but he knows the sharp end. Beaubier’s best of P8 at Mugello and another top ten in Germany are impressive too for the American, but it’s been a tougher run thereafter. With some home knowledge and the home crowd cheering them on, what can they do at COTA?

34 points is a good margin for Gardner, but it’s still only one DNF on a good day for his team-mate for a single podium to cover the difference. But on the flip side, 34-points is a big ask for a rookie to make up in four races – even if said rookie is equalling some of Marc Marquez’ records in the class.

Moto2 World Championship Standings

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Moto3

As the paddock arrives in Austin for the Red Bull Grand Prix of the Americas, there’s plenty to talk about in Moto3. The vast, fast COTA awaits and the lightweight class may once again negate the need for a preview as so much is often won and lost in few so corners, but there could be something to the tea leaves ahead of Texas. Form and feeling can play a big role and there’s only one person who’s had a near-perfect balance of both on the way in: Dennis Foggia (Leopard Racing).

The last time the Championship took on a venue where points leader Pedro Acosta (Red Bull KTM Ajo) and former closest challenger Sergio Garcia (Solunion GASGAS Aspar Team) had a little less experience, back at Silverstone, the podium was a veteran one: Romano Fenati (Sterilgarda Max Racing Team), Niccolo Antonelli (Avintia VR46 Academy) and Foggia locked it out. Could COTA be a similar story? Getting to grips with the venue certainly adds an extra challenge for Acosta, but recent form, regardless of whether the track was a fresh challenge or familiar hunting ground, is an interesting read.

In the last three races, the average points scored by some of the key players make for a stark contrast. Foggia has averaged 22 points per Grand Prix, hence his move into second overall. Antonelli has taken 17, despite his injury struggles and Fenati, despite his crash out the lead at Misano and his dose of bad luck at MotorLand, still took an average of 9. Acosta, meanwhile, has taken just 4.67, and Garcia just 4.33. If a rate even close to that continues, its very much game on for Foggia for a title charge.

The Italian did point out after his Misano win that he hadn’t ridden the Honda at COTA before, but he must surely remain the favourite as he continues to shine a light on how to escape the melee in Moto3™. Antonelli too, and Andrea Migno (Rivacold Snipers Team), whose average takes a hit from his mechanical DNF at Silverstone. And then there’s Fenati.

The number 55 has two previous wins at COTA, and they were both breakaways. One purely on pace, and one holding his nerve as then-rival Aron Canet suffered a crash in their duel at the front. If not for his fall from what was genuine poetry, pace and grace in lead at Misano, surely Fenati would be the favourite? So can he reset, reload and shake off that error to get himself back into contention?

Moto3 is more than a gaggle of veteran Italians with Acosta and Garcia in their midst, however. Jaume Masia (Red Bull KTM Ajo) is coming on consistent and was on the podium on our last visit to COTA, Deniz Öncü (Red Bull KTM Tech3) had some serious chops mid-2021 before a tougher weekend and big crash at Misano… Darryn Binder (Petronas Sprinta Racing) will want more than his recent finishes, and Ayumu Sasaki (Red Bull KTM Tech3) another podium following his Aragon rostrum. Can they spoil the party?

Moto3 World Championship Standings

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Source: MCNews.com.au